South Africa has many attributes that
make it a worthy representative of Africa
on the world stage, but is set to lose its
first place.
If Nigeria plays its cards right, it could
become Africa’s only global superpower.
It already has the continent’s biggest
economy, a huge military budget and a
fair record of regional engagement.
By 2040 it will also be the fourth largest
country in the world after India, China
and the United States.
New research by the Institute for
Security Studies (ISS) shows that out of
Africa’s “Big Five” powerful countries –
Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt, Algeria and
Ethiopia – Nigeria is “the African country
with by far the greatest capabilities” to
play a global role.
The choice of the Big Five is based on
the demographic, economic and military
size of these countries, as well as their
historical role as regional leaders,
Johannesburg-based newspaper, the
Mail & Guardian, quoted the ISS as
stating.
South Africa is the only African member
of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China,
South Africa) and the G20, but it is not
expected to grow in power and influence
internationally and in Africa.
Dr. Jakkie Cilliers, executive director of
the ISS and one of the co-authors of the
REPORT, says South Africans sometimes
have the misguided impression that the
country is a big military power and plays
a major role in peacekeeping in Africa.
Spending on defence has, however, been
drastically reduced, as shown in the
recent defence review. It contributes
fewer peacekeepers to United Nations
missions than Ethiopia, Egypt and
Nigeria.
“In fact, Algeria is spending the most on
its military, Ethiopia is the major
peacekeeper on the continent and Egypt
has the biggest diplomatic power,” says
Cilliers.
South Africa’s economy is not projected
to grow nearly as much as the rest of
Africa.
Population growths are much higher
elsewhere on the continent, particularly
in Nigeria, where it is projected to grow
from 170 million to 320 million by 2040.
“South Africans don’t appreciate the
huge size of Nigeria’s economy,” says
Cilliers. Nigeria’s gross domestic product
(GDP) is projected to grow from $525
billion in 2014 to $4.2 trillion by 2040.
Added to South Africa’s woes are
“legitimacy problems on the continent”.
“South Africa can be heavy-handed when
it comes to diplomacy and there is a
sense that South Africa speaks more
than it listens in Africa,” says Cilliers.
The ISS concludes that of the Big Five,
South Africa and Ethiopia are “punching
above their weight”, while Nigeria and
Algeria are “punching below” theirs.
Egypt is punching above its weight
internationally – it has a very strong
voice in the Middle East – but low in
Africa.
The inclusion of Ethiopia in the Big Five
is controversial because it is, according
to the ISS, “an authoritarian and
repressive state” and in 2014 had the
11th lowest GDP per capita in Africa.
However, it is growing fast and has
become “a poster child for development
in Africa”. It hosts the headquarters of
the African Union and is the largest
African contributor to UN peace
missions.
Algeria is also not living up to its
potential given that it has by far the
biggest military in Africa.
Nigeria, hampered largely by domestic
problems of governance and insecurity,
is also under-performing. Nigeria’s
military spending has, for example,
increased dramatically, with an
additional budget of $1 billion approved
last year, but this has all been
earmarked for the fight against Boko
Haram.
Even as last weekend’s elections in
Nigeria, dubbed the most important in
its history, went off smoothly, it still
doesn’t mean it has made the transition
to a sophisticated and mature
democracy, says Cilliers.
“Nigeria is the only power with the
potential to be globally significant but it
does not have a coherent foreign policy
and its massive security and governance
issues are detracting from this
potential,” he says.
South Africa, on the other hand, has
made this transition and has many
attributes that make it a worthy
representative of Africa on the world
stage, says Cilliers.
But, if the status quo prevails, South
Africa will lose its place in pole position.
Angola and Morocco are important
players on the continent with huge
economies, but Angola is a “purely
resource-driven economy” with huge
inequalities and lack of democracy, while
Morocco is not a member of the AU.
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